Trump narrows midterm travel to friendly states as GOP candidates dodge the liability
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Trump is concentrating on red-state rallies and keeping close to safer GOP terrain, while many competitive Republican candidates appear reluctant to be seen with him.
A Washington Post-ABC News poll showed that when voters weigh a Democratic Congress against a Republican one, the Democratic advantage jumps to 19 points when President Donald Trump is brought into the conversation. The numbers help explain why so many Republican candidates in swing districts are treating Trump like a political hazard rather than an asset.
Analysis of the president’s travel itinerary shows that he has visited or plans to visit nearly 20 states that backed him by an average of 14 points, including dark-red states such as Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. Only five states on his schedule failed to give him a double-digit margin, and one of them was New York, which he lost in 2024.
Republican Senate hopefuls who have appeared with Trump on the campaign trail are usually from states he won comfortably, such as Nebraska, South Carolina and Kansas, or from places where the races are tight, like Texas, Ohio and Alaska. By contrast, candidates in more competitive or blue-leaning states, including Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire, have not yet been tied to Trump events.
Similar patterns are visible in gubernatorial races. While some candidates in close contests, such as Nevada and Georgia, have campaigned with Trump, others in states like Alaska, Arizona and Ohio—where they are seen as underdogs—have also done so. Governors and other high-profile Republicans, including Texas Governor Greg Abbott and several New York GOP officials, have notably stayed away from Trump rallies.
The attendance record of Republican candidates at Trump events is uneven. Some, like Rep. Ashley Hinson of Iowa, have avoided the president’s appearances despite saying they would be open to a visit, while others have distanced themselves on policy issues. The shifting schedule raises questions about which candidates will show up with Trump at upcoming stops in Iowa and Michigan.
Overall, the president’s focus on campaigning in stronghold states and his role in key races suggest a strategy built around energizing his loyal base, though the effect on individual GOP contests remains uncertain.