Texas Senate race neck-and-neck as turnout becomes decisive factor

A recent CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,492 Texas registered voters shows the Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico essentially tied, putting voter turnout at the forefront of the race. The survey, conducted Oct. 8-16, 2026, indicates that while Paxton benefits from the state’s overall Republican lean, Talarico gains support from voters worried about the cost of living and who rate his personal character more favorably.

"The cost of living is the top issue for Texas voters, and most say they've been negatively affected by higher prices," the poll notes, with Talarico holding a sizable lead among those respondents.

Talarico also attracts a modest share of Republican voters (5%) and a small but notable portion of voters who typically never back Democrats (9%). Conversely, Paxton’s base is driven by party loyalty, opposition to Talarico, and support for President Trump, according to the poll.

The survey highlights demographic challenges for both candidates. Paxton must rely on the state’s larger Republican electorate, while Talarico needs strong performance among independents, younger voters, and Latino voters, who have shifted toward him despite recent support for Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

The poll’s margin of error is ±3.4 points for registered voters and ±3.5 points for likely voters. The findings suggest the final weeks of the campaign could swing the race either way, depending on which side mobilizes its supporters most effectively.