Institute of the Study of War finds Ukraine's refinery strikes did not affect U.S. diesel prices

An analysis by the Institute of the Study of War (ISW) indicates that Ukraine's recent strikes on Russian oil refineries have not translated into higher diesel prices in the United States. U.S. diesel prices stayed below $4 per gallon from August 2025 until early February, when they began to rise sharply following a joint U.S.-Israel attack on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane.

According to ISW data, the most intensive wave of Ukrainian attacks in November 2025, which targeted six Russian refineries, coincided with a slight dip in U.S. diesel prices. Prices surged later in February, reaching $6.53 per gallon on September 21, a level the institute attributes to the escalation of hostilities in Iran rather than the Ukrainian campaign.

The findings emerge amid heightened diplomatic friction between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over a proposed U.S. purchase of more than 2.25 million barrels of diesel from Russia. Trump has urged Kyiv to halt attacks on Russian refineries, arguing that they contribute to rising global fuel costs.

"If you tell me that Zelensky is again shooting at refineries, all he’s doing is making the world oil price higher," President Trump said on Newsmax.

Zelensky responded that Ukraine would continue its operations against Russian energy infrastructure, describing the attacks as a means to weaken Moscow's war financing. He also claimed that the White House had cut off Ukraine's access to the Starshield satellite network, a secure U.S. military communications system derived from SpaceX’s Starlink, which he said hampered Ukraine's defensive capabilities.

"The block is out. We’re done," Zelensky told the Financial Times during a visit to London.

The ISW report suggests that factors unrelated to the Ukrainian strikes, notably the conflict involving Iran, are the primary drivers of recent U.S. diesel price increases.