Trump's diesel deal with Russia raises concerns for Ukraine's war effort
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Experts say the agreement to export Russian diesel offers limited financial benefit to Moscow but could strengthen its political position, while restrictions on U.S. intelligence sharing and Starlink use add pressure on Ukraine.
U.S. President Donald Trump reached an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow Russia to export up to 4.8 million metric tons of diesel, a volume equivalent to roughly ten days of U.S. demand. Analysts told CNBC that the shipment is too small to affect global fuel prices, with one former IEA official describing it as "very, very small." The initial phase of 1.8 million metric tons could generate about $1.25 billion in export revenue over three months, representing roughly 1 % of Russia's commodity export earnings for that period, but would add less than $30 million per month to the federal budget.
Sergey Aleksashenko, senior research fellow at the NEST Centre, said the main impact of the deal is political, noting that it eases sanctions pressure and undermines Western unity without requiring concessions from Moscow on Ukraine. He added that the additional diesel is unlikely to lower consumer fuel prices in the short term and that funding the war remains Putin's priority.
The arrangement has prompted concerns in Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that the diesel exemption could set a precedent for further sanctions relief and emphasized Ukraine's continued reliance on U.S. military technology and intelligence. "Sanctions will be lifted after gas. They will be lifted on something else," he said, referencing potential future relaxations.
Separately, a restriction on SpaceX's Starshield service for Ukraine, reportedly ordered from within the White House, has limited the speed of the Starlink network used by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine's first deputy minister for recovery, infrastructure and transport, Serhiy Derkach, said the limitation has made it harder to counter Russian drones and has emboldened Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure.
Experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies cautioned that the diesel exemption, which runs until April 2027, could enable further Russian exports and strengthen Moscow's economic position. They also noted that Ukraine and its European partners remain heavily dependent on U.S. intelligence and missile-defense support, a reliance unlikely to change before the end of the current administration.