Collins and Jackson head into third Maine Senate debate amid razor-thin polls
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Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson will meet for a third debate as new polling shows the Maine Senate race locked in a near tie, with Jackson slightly ahead in most surveys.
Senator Susan Collins and Democratic candidate Troy Jackson are set to face each other in the third of four scheduled debates on Tuesday, hosted by Bangor’s WABI at 7 p.m. ET. The contest, widely seen as one of the most consequential Senate races in the 2026 midterms, has produced poll after poll showing the candidates separated by only a sliver.
A Washington Post and George Mason University poll of 800 likely voters recorded Jackson with a 4-point lead (51% to 46%). A Marist University poll of 1,505 registered voters gave Jackson a 4-point advantage (51% to 47%). A YouGov/CBS News survey showed an even split at 50% each, while the RealClearPolitics aggregate indicated a 1.2-point edge for Jackson.
Political science professor Dan Shea of Colby College said the candidates need to sharpen their messages, noting Jackson should bring more substance to his “down-home” style and Collins should adopt a clearer, plain-spoken approach. Shea also pointed to home-heating oil costs as a major issue likely to dominate the upcoming debates.
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Jackson, and Senator Bernie Sanders campaigned with him in the state. President Donald Trump has hinted at a possible visit, which Collins said she has not heard from his office and does not expect.
Collins, who has previously broken with Trump on the administration’s plan to import Russian diesel, joined a bipartisan group of senators opposing the move, citing concerns about financing Russia’s war in Ukraine.
A pro-Collins political action committee mistakenly placed ads attacking Jackson in Portland, Oregon, instead of Portland, Maine; the vendor corrected the error after it was identified.
Prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket show Jackson with a slight edge, offering roughly a 60% probability of victory.
The final debate will be held Thursday at 7 p.m., organized by The Portland Press Herald and NEWS CENTER Maine. Absentee voting in Maine began on October 5 and runs through October 29, with more than 70,000 ballots requested as of early October.