College Football Playoff bubble narrows after Week 6 results
Week 6 outcomes shift the CFP picture, with Georgia moving to No. 1, Miami leading the ACC, and several teams moving in and out of contention across the Power 4 conferences.
Georgia’s victory over Alabama in Week 6 propelled the Bulldogs to the No. 1 spot in the latest College Football Playoff projection and gave them the top ranking in ESPN’s strength-of-record metric. Miami remains the ACC’s leading contender, while the SEC’s representation shrank to four teams—Georgia, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss.
In the ACC, Miami boasts the nation’s highest-scoring offense and defense and a Heisman-caliber quarterback, putting its CFP chance at 94.7% behind Georgia’s 95.7%. Wake Forest, at 5-1, is viewed as a potential ACC championship opponent, though its schedule strength remains a question.
The Big 12 features Utah as a statistical outlier with top-10 efficiency ratings, though its schedule ranks low nationally. BYU also appears strong, while Texas Tech, despite being unbeaten, is considered a “wrong side of the bubble” team because of its weaker opponents.
Ohio State sits at No. 5 in the projected top-12, benefitting from Texas’s loss to Oklahoma. UCLA’s 5-0 start places it in the playoff conversation, but concerns about schedule quality and the health of its starting quarterback persist.
Notre Dame, the leading independent, holds the third-best chance (93.3%) to reach the playoff, trailing only Georgia and Miami. Boise State leads the Group of 6 with a 53.5% chance to win out, while James Madison’s weak schedule keeps it on the fringe.
If the selection committee voted today, the projected first-round byes would be Georgia, Miami, Notre Dame and Texas, with first-round matchups pairing Boise State against Ohio State, Utah against Alabama, UCLA against Indiana and Ole Miss against BYU.
"Georgia’s win at Alabama catapulted them into the No. 1 spot and gave them the best combination of eye test and résumé," the analysis notes.
"Miami’s biggest asset right now is simply what they’re putting on film: the No. 1 scoring offense, the No. 1 scoring defense and a Heisman-caliber quarterback," the report adds.
The rankings will continue to evolve as teams complete their schedules and the selection committee reviews résumés.