Poll Shows Spaniards Fear Ceuta Crisis Could Explode Into War as Morocco Is Seen as a Threat
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A September POLITICO poll found 58% of Spaniards believe the Ceuta and Melilla dispute could erupt into armed conflict within ten years, while three-quarters say Morocco threatens Spain’s territorial integrity, amid anger over mass migration, suspicion of Rabat, and demands for a firmer response.
A POLITICO poll released in September indicates that 58% of Spaniards believe disputes over the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla could lead to armed conflict with Morocco within the next ten years. The survey, conducted by PF Global, also found that three-quarters of respondents consider Morocco a genuine threat to Spain’s territorial integrity.
The poll follows the arrival of more than 70,000 migrants in Ceuta in late July, an event that intensified criticism of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist government and raised questions about Morocco’s involvement. Sánchez described the influx as an attack on Spain’s territorial integrity but blamed smugglers rather than Rabat, a stance that many on the right see as far too weak and evasive.
Conservative People’s Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo accused Morocco of “spearheading and coordinating” the crisis and alleged a government cover-up. Supporters of the far-right Vox party and the People’s Party were more likely to view Morocco as a threat and to anticipate a conflict, with over 75% of Vox supporters sharing that view, highlighting a widespread demand for a tougher line.
Even among Sánchez’s own Socialist voters, nearly two-thirds see Morocco as a threat, though the party’s base is split on the likelihood of war. Overall, more than 80% of Spaniards rate Morocco as a moderate to significant risk, ahead of other powers such as China, the United States and Russia, which underscores how seriously the public views the danger.
Despite concerns, two-thirds of those surveyed expect Ceuta and Melilla to remain under Spanish control in 20 years. The European Commission and Spanish ministers are discussing emergency measures to address mass movements that could be engineered or weaponized, emphasizing the role of smugglers and criminal networks in driving instability.
King Felipe VI is scheduled to visit Ceuta and Melilla, including a stop at the Sidi Embarek cemetery where victims of the crisis are buried. Deputy Mayor Kissy Chandiramani said Morocco refused to repatriate the bodies, a move analyst Ignacio Cembrero called “a slap in the face.” Defense Minister Margarita Robles reiterated that the enclaves are “unquestionably Spanish.” Morocco’s King Mohammed VI, in his first public appearance since the crisis, warned of “major challenges” to cooperation with Spain but did not directly address the king’s visit.
"Morocco refused to repatriate them – a gesture which analyst Ignacio Cembrero described as ‘a slap in the face.’"