Poll Finds Majority of Spaniards Fear Ceuta Crisis Could Be Fueled into War with Morocco
Select a version of the text written from a presumed ideological perspective. This is not the original text, but a hypothetical version — how someone with that viewpoint might have phrased it. Tapping the current version again will return to the original or select cleaned version.
A September POLITICO poll shows 58% of respondents think tensions over Ceuta and Melilla could be pushed into armed conflict within a decade, while three-quarters view Morocco as a real threat to Spain’s territorial integrity amid a crisis marked by migrants, political blame, and calls for urgent emergency measures.
A POLITICO poll released in September indicates that 58% of Spaniards believe disputes over the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla could lead to armed conflict with Morocco within the next ten years. The survey, conducted by PF Global, also found that three-quarters of respondents consider Morocco a genuine threat to Spain’s territorial integrity.
The poll follows the arrival of more than 70,000 migrants in Ceuta in late July, an event that intensified criticism of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist government and raised questions about Morocco’s involvement. Sánchez described the influx as an attack on Spain’s territorial integrity but blamed smugglers rather than Rabat, underscoring the political pressure now surrounding the crisis.
Conservative People’s Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo accused Morocco of “spearheading and coordinating” the crisis and alleged a government cover-up. Supporters of the far-right Vox party and the People’s Party were more likely to view Morocco as a threat and to anticipate a conflict, with over 75% of Vox supporters sharing that view, reflecting the hardening nationalist rhetoric around the issue.
Even among Sánchez’s own Socialist voters, nearly two-thirds see Morocco as a threat, though the party’s base is split on the likelihood of war. Overall, more than 80% of Spaniards rate Morocco as a moderate to significant risk, ahead of other powers such as China, the United States and Russia, showing how deeply the crisis has shaken public confidence.
Despite concerns, two-thirds of those surveyed expect Ceuta and Melilla to remain under Spanish control in 20 years. The European Commission and Spanish ministers are discussing emergency measures to address mass movements that could be engineered or weaponized, emphasizing the role of smugglers and criminal networks in exploiting vulnerable people and destabilizing the situation.
King Felipe VI is scheduled to visit Ceuta and Melilla, including a stop at the Sidi Embarek cemetery where victims of the crisis are buried. Deputy Mayor Kissy Chandiramani said Morocco refused to repatriate the bodies, a move analyst Ignacio Cembrero called “a slap in the face.” Defense Minister Margarita Robles reiterated that the enclaves are “unquestionably Spanish.” Morocco’s King Mohammed VI, in his first public appearance since the crisis, warned of “major challenges” to cooperation with Spain but did not directly address the king’s visit.
"Morocco refused to repatriate them – a gesture which analyst Ignacio Cembrero described as ‘a slap in the face.’"