Oil and gas prices climb after President Trump's announced energy ceasefire fails to take effect

Oil and gas prices increased on Monday following President Donald Trump's announcement of an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine that did not gain traction. Brent crude rose roughly 2% to near $108 a barrel, while U.S. crude climbed more than 2% to about $94 a barrel. Diesel futures erased a prior decline, and the average nationwide diesel price reached $6.26 per gallon, nearly 80% higher than at the start of the year, according to AAA data.

Trump posted on Truth Social that an "ENERGY CEASEFIRE" was in effect immediately, claiming both sides had agreed. Within hours, Russia resumed strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities. When pressed about the lack of a firm commitment from either side, Trump said he knew there was no guarantee when he made the announcement and added, "They agreed, you know why? Because I said ‘You agree.’" He also noted uncertainty about violations, stating, "I’m not sure about that," and suggested there were "violations on both sides."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv learned of the ceasefire from media reports and had not received advance notice. He reiterated Ukraine's willingness to refrain from targeting Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow does the same, but noted continued Russian attacks, including a recent strike on a Kharkiv power plant. Zelenskyy said, "Ukraine has proposed many de-escalatory steps. Putin had one answer to all of them — ‘nyet.’"

The Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied the ceasefire. Trump's earlier September ceasefire claim had similarly failed to produce a reduction in strikes on energy assets.

On Friday, Trump announced a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the U.S. and global markets, a volume equivalent to about 2.25 million barrels. The Treasury Department announced a six-month suspension of sanctions on Russian fuel to facilitate the arrangement. Ukrainian officials, European allies and some U.S. lawmakers expressed strong opposition to the deal and the unilateral easing of sanctions.

Trump defended the agreement, calling it "the right choice for the American People" and said additional diesel could become available quickly if Russian refineries were able to produce it. Energy analysts, however, remain skeptical about a near-term increase in Russian diesel exports, citing damage to Russian refineries from Ukrainian strikes and a reported 30% drop in diesel production, which has led Russia to restrict fuel exports to protect domestic supplies.