Oil and gas prices jump after Trump’s grand “energy ceasefire” collapses almost immediately
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Brent crude rose about 2% and U.S. crude more than 2% on Monday after a supposed “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine failed to materialize, sending diesel prices higher just ahead of the midterm elections and exposing how empty the announcement was.
Oil and gas prices increased on Monday after President Donald Trump’s announcement of an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine quickly unraveled and failed to gain any real traction. Brent crude rose roughly 2% to near $108 a barrel, while U.S. crude climbed more than 2% to about $94 a barrel. Diesel futures erased an earlier decline, and the average nationwide diesel price reached $6.26 per gallon, nearly 80% higher than at the start of the year, according to AAA data.
Trump posted on Truth Social that an “ENERGY CEASEFIRE” was in effect immediately, insisting both sides had agreed. Within hours, Russia resumed strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities, undercutting the claim. When pressed about the absence of any firm commitment from either side, Trump admitted he knew there was no guarantee when he made the announcement and then tried to wave away the contradiction, saying, “They agreed, you know why? Because I said ‘You agree.’” He also brushed aside questions about violations, saying, “I’m not sure about that,” and added that there were “violations on both sides.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv learned of the ceasefire from media reports and had not been notified in advance. He repeated Ukraine’s readiness to avoid targeting Russian energy infrastructure if Moscow does the same, while pointing to continued Russian attacks, including a recent strike on a Kharkiv power plant. Zelenskyy said, “Ukraine has proposed many de-escalatory steps. Putin had one answer to all of them — ‘nyet.’”
The Kremlin neither confirmed nor denied the ceasefire. Trump’s earlier September ceasefire claim had likewise failed to produce any meaningful reduction in strikes on energy assets.
On Friday, Trump announced a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the U.S. and global markets, a volume equivalent to about 2.25 million barrels. The Treasury Department announced a six-month suspension of sanctions on Russian fuel to facilitate the arrangement. Ukrainian officials, European allies and some U.S. lawmakers strongly opposed the deal and the unilateral easing of sanctions.
Trump defended the agreement, calling it “the right choice for the American People” and said additional diesel could become available quickly if Russian refineries were able to produce it. Energy analysts, however, remain skeptical about any near-term surge in Russian diesel exports, citing damage to Russian refineries from Ukrainian strikes and a reported 30% drop in diesel production, which has already forced Russia to restrict fuel exports to protect domestic supplies.