Democrats poised for gains as Trump approval hits record low ahead of midterms

President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to roughly 37%, tied for the lowest pre-midterm level in the past 50 years, according to an average of recent polls. The decline, coupled with voter concerns over rising prices, is expected to translate into electoral setbacks for Republicans in November’s congressional contests.

The Cook Political Report now forecasts a net gain of five to 15 seats for Democrats in the House, which would give them between 220 and 230 seats, enough for a narrow majority. In the Senate, six seats have shifted toward Democrats since June, moving the chamber into a more competitive position for the party.

Economic issues dominate voter sentiment, with an AP/NORC poll indicating that 65% of respondents attribute higher prices to President Trump’s policies. Only 26% expressed confidence in his handling of the economy, and a recent NBC News poll showed a slight preference for Democratic over Republican economic stewardship for the first time during his presidency.

Historical patterns reinforce the outlook: in 18 of the last 20 midterm elections since World War II, the president’s party lost House seats, averaging a loss of 26 seats. The loss tends to be larger when the incumbent’s approval falls below 50%.

Voter enthusiasm also appears to favor Democrats. A CBS poll found that 84% of Democrats and 82% of independents said they were "definitely" planning to vote, compared with 77% of Republicans. Additionally, the congressional ballot test—a measure of which party’s candidates respondents would choose if elections were held today—shows Democrats holding a nine-point advantage, a margin historically sufficient for gains.

While redistricting and Republican spending advantages could limit Democratic gains, analysts note that the combination of low presidential approval, economic dissatisfaction, and heightened opposition intensity creates significant headwinds for the GOP heading into the midterms.