Brazil's presidential election heads to runoff as Flavio Bolsonaro leads first round

Flavio Bolsonaro, the right-wing candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, received 47.03% of the vote in Brazil’s presidential election, while incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva obtained 45.16%. Because neither candidate surpassed the 50% threshold, a runoff is scheduled for 25 October.

The result gave Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party the largest share of governors, senators and federal deputies elected so far, positioning the party to wield significant influence in Congress. Lula, 80, warned voters that the choice was between democracy and “barbarism,” while Bolsonaro, 45, said he wants to “free the Brazilian people.”

Both candidates have framed the campaign around sovereignty, crime, the economy and corruption. Lula remains popular in the poorer northeast and among low-income voters, whereas Bolsonaro draws support from the south, wealthier constituencies and evangelical Christians.

The Supreme Electoral Court reported no evidence of foreign interference in the vote. Earlier in the campaign, Lula emphasized national sovereignty and accused the United States of attempting to influence Brazil’s elections, while Bolsonaro has previously urged the United States to label Brazil’s two largest gangs as terrorist organisations.

"I am very happy with the real possibility that, three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer by choosing a modern government," Bolsonaro said, according to AFP.

"I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round. The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people," Lula said.

Corruption scandals involving a jailed banker and allegations of financial fraud have featured prominently, affecting figures across the political spectrum. Crime and insecurity also remain key voter concerns, with proposals ranging from designating gangs as terrorist groups to expanding prison capacity.

The runoff will determine whether Brazil aligns more closely with the United States, potentially joining the “Shield of the Americas” anti-narco-trafficking coalition, or maintains a pragmatic economic relationship with China, its largest trading partner.