Brazilian presidential race narrows to Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro as polls show tight contest
Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff-likely election, with polls placing both candidates around 40% of the vote.
Brazilians will vote on Sunday in a general election that pits incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. While twelve candidates are on the ballot, only Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro have reached double-digit support in opinion polls, each hovering near 40%, according to BBC Brasil’s poll tracker.
Jair Bolsonaro, barred from running and serving a 27-year sentence for an alleged coup plot, remains a prominent figure behind the scenes. An AI-generated avatar of him appeared at Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign launch, prompting the Supreme Court to question the deep-fake’s use.
If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the first round on 4 October, a runoff between the top two contenders is scheduled for 25 October. Polls indicate a runoff is likely, though a notable share of voters remain undecided.
Lula, 80, is seeking a third term after previously serving two presidencies and overseeing poverty-reduction programmes such as Bolsa Família. His tenure has been marked by both high approval ratings and corruption scandals, though his convictions were annulled in 2021. He has pledged to continue policies aimed at reducing Amazon deforestation while supporting offshore oil exploration to fund a transition to clean energy.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, has served as a senator since 2019 and runs under the Liberal Party. He emphasizes a tough-on-crime agenda, deregulation for farmers, and alignment with evangelical voters. In a recent interview he acknowledged extreme climate events but described them as cyclical, and he has expressed willingness to join a U.S.-led anti-crime initiative.
Crime and security have traditionally been top voter concerns, but recent revelations involving a jailed banker’s alleged financing of a biopic about Jair Bolsonaro have shifted attention to corruption allegations against Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Lula has stressed that “no one is above the law,” while Flávio Bolsonaro warned that voting for Lula equates to supporting Moraes.
"Voting for Lula means voting for Moraes," Flávio Bolsonaro told supporters at a rally.
With nearly 160 million eligible voters, Brazil’s compulsory voting system will see high turnout, and the final outcome may differ from poll projections.