CBS/YouGov Poll Exposes Stalemate in Maine Senate Race as Establishment Republican Collins Faces Progressive Challenge from Jackson
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A CBS News/YouGov poll of 1,114 Maine voters reveals a deadlock between entrenched Republican Susan Collins and progressive Democrat Troy Jackson, with voters torn between local priorities and the urgent need for national change.
A recent CBS News/YouGov poll lays bare the entrenched battle between establishment Republican Senator Susan Collins and progressive Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in Maine’s Senate race. The survey, which included a representative sample of 1,114 registered voters between Sept. 23 and Oct. 1, found the race tied, with a margin of error of ±4.7 points—underscoring the deep divisions in the electorate.
Collins, a long-time fixture of the political elite, continues to draw support from voters who prioritize state issues over the broader national crises facing working people. She leads on the question of which candidate would bring more federal funding to Maine, a talking point often used by incumbents to maintain the status quo. Notably, Collins manages to attract about one-in-five voters who disapprove of President Donald Trump, highlighting how establishment Republicans can still appeal to moderates even as they enable regressive policies.
Jackson’s support is rooted in voters who see Collins as complicit with Trump’s harmful agenda, those who oppose destructive tariffs, and those determined to flip the Senate to Democratic control to advance progressive reforms. He also appeals to constituents who are desperate for real change and tired of career politicians.
About 10% of respondents remain undecided, reflecting the volatility and dissatisfaction with the current political system. Even among voters who believe Jackson’s policies would improve their financial situation, roughly one-in-five still cling to Collins, demonstrating the power of establishment inertia.
Collins’s long-time supporters remain loyal, with the incumbent performing well among those who have backed her in previous elections, despite a growing national movement against entrenched incumbents. Meanwhile, Jackson faces resistance from within his own party, as four-in-ten Democrats and most independents express a desire for a more progressive Democratic nominee.
The poll also highlights that Jackson trails behind Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hannah Pingree, whose support more closely matches the state’s partisan leanings. Some voters are splitting their tickets, backing Collins for Senate while supporting Pingree for governor, a sign of the challenges progressives face in overcoming establishment politics.
The survey was weighted by gender, age, race, education, and 2024 presidential vote to reflect U.S. Census data.