Fox News poll shows Democrat Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Paxton in Texas Senate race

A Fox News poll of likely Texas voters released Thursday shows Democrat James Talarico holding a slim two-point advantage over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate seat, with 51% of respondents favoring Talarico and 49% backing Paxton. The margin is within the poll’s sampling error.

Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of eight points (52% favorable, 44% unfavorable), while Paxton trails by 18 points (40% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Among likely voters, Republicans are six times more likely than Democrats to view Paxton unfavorably.

Enthusiasm also diverges: 64% of MAGA-aligned Republicans say they are extremely interested in the midterms compared with 50% of non-MAGA Republicans, while roughly two-thirds of both DSA and non-DSA Democrats report extreme interest. Voter certainty is similarly high for Democrats, with about three-quarters confident they will vote.

Support for Talarico is strongest among Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and those under 35 (62%). Paxton’s base includes White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and seniors 65 and older (55%).

Both candidates face ideological concerns, with 53% of respondents saying Talarico is too liberal and 51% saying Paxton is too closely aligned with President Donald Trump. Economic issues dominate voter priorities: seven in ten Texans say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and voters who feel they are falling behind financially back Talarico by 32 points, while those who feel they are getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points.

"Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump, so the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and where the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw.

The poll, conducted Sept. 24-28 among 1,203 registered voters, has a margin of error of ±2.5 points for the full sample and ±3 points for the likely-voter subsample.