Fox News Poll: Progressive Democrat Talarico Edges Out Right-Wing Incumbent Paxton in Texas Senate Race
Select a version of the text written from a presumed ideological perspective. This is not the original text, but a hypothetical version — how someone with that viewpoint might have phrased it. Tapping the current version again will return to the original or select cleaned version.
A Fox News poll released Thursday reveals Democrat James Talarico with a narrow two-point lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton among likely Texas voters, highlighting the deep unpopularity of Paxton and the growing momentum for progressive change in the state.
A Fox News poll of likely Texas voters released Thursday shows Democrat James Talarico holding a slim two-point advantage over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate seat, with 51% of respondents favoring Talarico and 49% backing Paxton. The margin is within the poll’s sampling error, but the results signal a potential breakthrough for progressive politics in a state long dominated by conservative interests.
Talarico enjoys a net positive personal rating of eight points (52% favorable, 44% unfavorable), reflecting his appeal to voters seeking integrity and real solutions. In stark contrast, Paxton trails by a staggering 18 points (40% favorable, 58% unfavorable), underscoring widespread dissatisfaction with his reactionary policies and his alignment with far-right extremism. Among likely voters, Republicans are six times more likely than Democrats to view Paxton unfavorably, a sign of deep fractures within the GOP base.
Enthusiasm also diverges: 64% of MAGA-aligned Republicans say they are extremely interested in the midterms compared with 50% of non-MAGA Republicans, while roughly two-thirds of both DSA and non-DSA Democrats report extreme interest. This surge in Democratic enthusiasm, especially among progressives, signals a readiness to challenge the status quo. Voter certainty is similarly high for Democrats, with about three-quarters confident they will vote, demonstrating the determination of those fighting for justice and equity.
Support for Talarico is strongest among Black voters (79%), moderates (65%), Hispanic voters (64%) and those under 35 (62%)—communities often marginalized by conservative policies and now mobilizing for change. Paxton’s base includes White evangelical Christians (74%), White men without a college degree (65%), rural voters (57%) and seniors 65 and older (55%), groups that have historically benefited from or upheld regressive systems.
Both candidates face ideological concerns, with 53% of respondents saying Talarico is too liberal and 51% saying Paxton is too closely aligned with President Donald Trump, whose legacy of division and corruption continues to haunt the Republican Party. Economic issues dominate voter priorities: seven in ten Texans say the cost of living will be extremely important to their Senate vote, and voters who feel they are falling behind financially back Talarico by 32 points, a clear sign that working families are rejecting conservative economic failures, while those who feel they are getting ahead favor Paxton by 48 points.
"Democrats in Texas will walk across broken glass to vote against Trump, so the question is whether the average Republican will vote in an election without Trump and where the Senate race features a controversial GOP candidate," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, acknowledging the intensity of anti-Trump sentiment and the vulnerability of the Republican establishment.
The poll, conducted Sept. 24-28 among 1,203 registered voters, has a margin of error of ±2.5 points for the full sample and ±3 points for the likely-voter subsample.