Steelers and Browns set for Thursday Night Football showdown in Cleveland
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Cleveland Browns in Week 4 of the NFL on Thursday night, with the Steelers favored by 2.5 points and a total of 38.5 points projected.
Pittsburgh and Cleveland, both at 2-1, will meet in the Week 4 Thursday Night Football game on Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET in Cleveland. The contest will be streamed on Prime Video. Betting markets list the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites and set the over/under at 38.5 points. The Steelers are a -148 favorite on the moneyline, while the Browns are +126 underdogs.
The Steelers entered the game after a 30-27 victory over the Bengals, with quarterback Aaron Rodgers leading a pass-heavy offense that posted a +6% pass-rate over expected. Analysts note that the team may shift toward a more balanced attack, emphasizing the run game anchored by Jaylen Warren, who logged a career-high 90% snap count last week. The offensive line also saw adjustments, with Brock Hoffman moving to right guard and rookie Max Iheanachor starting at right tackle.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run and has allowed several big rushing plays this season. Quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has engineered go-ahead touchdowns in consecutive games, is listed as the Browns’ primary offensive catalyst. Watson’s EPA per dropback ranks 20th among qualified quarterbacks, and the Browns have seen improvements at wide receiver, with rookies Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion emerging as top targets.
The Browns’ rushing attack, led by Quinshon Judkins, has struggled, averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and ranking near the bottom of the league. Analysts suggest that Cleveland will need to sustain its ground game to avoid predictable passing situations against a Steelers defense that records a high pass-rush rate.
Betting analysts align with the market spread, projecting the Steelers to lead on roughly 44% of the snaps. A prop bet focusing on Aaron Rodgers completing fewer than 20.5 passes has been highlighted, based on the expectation that the Steelers will rely more on the run and that Cleveland’s defense will pressure Rodgers into longer, lower-completion attempts.
Both teams are vying for first place in the AFC North, and the outcome will hinge on the effectiveness of Pittsburgh’s run game and Cleveland’s ability to protect Watson while establishing a consistent rushing attack.