Key Midterm Races Where Upsets May Occur
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Analysts highlight several Senate, House and gubernatorial contests in Florida, Kentucky, Oregon, Kansas, Colorado and South Carolina as potential surprise outcomes in the 2026 midterm elections.
The final week of the Senate session precedes the 2026 midterm elections, with the House already having ended its legislative calendar. While the president’s party typically loses ground in midterms, recent polling suggests that President Donald Trump’s declining approval could make several races competitive.
In Florida, the governor’s race pits Trump-endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds against former Rep. David Jolly, who switched parties to run as a Democrat. Donalds has removed references to Trump from his campaign materials and faces criticism for his support of data-center development.
Kentucky’s 6th congressional district, long considered safe for Republicans, features Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado, who has also stripped Trump references from his website, against Democrat Zach Dembo. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has allocated $683,000 for advertising in the district.
Oregon’s gubernatorial contest sees incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek facing Republican Christine Drazan in a rematch. A recent poll showed 59 % disapproval of Kotek and gave Drazan a two-point lead, prompting the Cook Political Report to downgrade the race to “Lean Democratic.”
In Kansas, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall seeks re-election against Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist minister. Marshall, a strong Trump supporter, voted against a War Powers Act resolution related to the Iran conflict, while Hamilton leads in an Emerson College poll, though within the margin of error.
Colorado’s 4th district features Rep. Lauren Boebert, a former Trump ally, running for re-election against Democrat Eileen Laubacher. Boebert’s margin in 2024 was about 12 points, and analysts note that a modest swing could be decisive.
A special election in South Carolina follows the death of Sen. Lindsey Graham. Trump has urged the governor to appoint his sister Darline Graham to the seat and has backed her in the upcoming Republican primary. Polls show a narrow lead for the younger Graham over Democratic pediatrician Annie Andrews, who is attempting to attract crossover voters.
These contests are being watched closely as they could influence the balance of power in Congress and state governments.