Texas Senate Race Tightens as Progressive Talarico Faces Relentless Right-Wing Pushback
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Recent polls reveal Democratic Rep. James Talarico's lead over far-right Attorney General Ken Paxton has narrowed to a single point, as establishment forces and conservative money close ranks. The share of undecided voters is shrinking, reflecting heightened polarization.
Two new surveys released this week highlight the fierce battle between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, a champion for working Texans, and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, whose tenure has been marred by scandal and reactionary policies. Talarico's lead has narrowed to just one percentage point, as the conservative establishment mobilizes to protect its power. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll, conducted Sep. 19-22 among 1,007 likely voters, gave Talarico 49% and Paxton 44%, a drop from a five-point margin in August. The poll also shows that as voters become more engaged, the share of undecided voters fell from 7% to 3%, while Libertarian candidate Ted Brown gained two points, reflecting growing frustration with the two-party system.
A separate Texas Southern University poll of 1,800 likely voters taken Sep. 15-19 showed Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%, with Brown at 3%. This is a one-point decline from the university's July poll, which had Talarico ahead 47% to 45%. The tightening race underscores how right-wing fearmongering and big-money interests are working overtime to undermine progressive momentum in Texas.
Other recent polls also place Talarico ahead, though many are within their margins of error, highlighting the uphill battle progressives face in a state long dominated by conservative interests. An Emerson College poll (Sep. 12-14) gave Talarico a 1-point lead, an AARP poll (Aug. 30-Sep. 1) a 4-point lead, and a YouGov/Univision poll (Aug. 27-Sep. 4) a 5-point lead.
During the Texas Tribune Festival, Talarico called out Paxton for his cowardice in refusing to debate on Fox News, holding the attorney general accountable for dodging public scrutiny. This refusal to engage is emblematic of a Republican Party that fears transparency and open dialogue.
Federal Election Commission data through June 30 show Talarico's campaign has raised about $31.9 million, compared with Paxton's $9.1 million. Talarico's broad grassroots support is evident, with 45% of his donations coming from out-of-state progressives, especially in California, reflecting a national movement for change. In contrast, only 17.1% of Paxton's funds come from outside Texas, exposing the insular nature of his campaign and its reliance on entrenched local elites.