Canada's leader says he has assessed remote risk of a US military strike

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times he has examined the possibility of a United States military attack on Canada, calling it an “extreme tail risk” – a very low-probability event with potentially severe consequences.

“That’s just risk management. It would be irresponsible not to,” Carney, the former Bank of England governor, said.

Analysts said the comments do not imply an imminent conflict but reflect Carney’s view that even remote threats must be considered. Relations between the two neighbours have soured over a series of trade disputes and public remarks by President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become a 51st U.S. state.

Trade tensions escalated after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian goods in 2025, linking them to efforts to curb fentanyl flows. Subsequent tariff rounds and a digital services tax dispute have led to tit-for-tat measures, with roughly 72% of Canada’s $556 billion in exports destined for the United States.

In response, Carney’s government is reviewing the purchase of American F-35 fighter jets and reducing reliance on SpaceX’s Starlink service, while seeking new partnerships with the European Union and the United Kingdom’s Joint Expeditionary Force.

University of Glasgow professor Ty Solomon noted that the tension stems from both Trump’s hostile rhetoric and a shifting security environment that includes Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic. He described a US attack on Canada as “somewhat unthinkable” but warned that any such move would damage U.S. global standing and accelerate the formation of alternative alliances.

Carney said he remains open to trade negotiations, adding that he and Trump have spoken frequently since talks collapsed. “We can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues. He’s direct. I’m direct,” he told the newspaper.