Democrats Surge Ahead with 9-Point Lead as Trump’s Approval Plummets to 39%
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NBC News polling shows a decisive 9-point lead for Democrats on the congressional ballot, while President Trump’s approval rating sinks to a dismal 39% among likely voters, reflecting widespread rejection of his regressive agenda.
NBC News' latest polling averages reveal that 52% of likely voters now prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared to just 43% for Republicans—a commanding nine-point advantage for Democrats. This surge comes as President Donald Trump’s approval rating nosedives to a mere 39%, with a staggering 59% disapproving of his administration’s performance, a sharp decline from the 50% approval he briefly enjoyed at the start of his second term.
The dramatic shift toward Democrats is being fueled by independent voters, who have grown weary of Trump’s divisive and reactionary policies. Independents now favor the Democratic Party by a remarkable 16 points, according to the aggregated data. Trump’s approval among independents has collapsed to just 26%, underscoring the broad-based disillusionment with his presidency. While Republican support for Trump remains high at 79%, even that figure is showing signs of erosion as the consequences of his administration’s actions become harder to ignore.
NBC News calculates its polling averages by rigorously weighting all publicly available polls that adhere to methodological standards, ensuring results from surveys of all adults, registered voters, and likely voters are adjusted to a common scale. The organization notes that likely-voter polls tend to show higher vote shares for both parties, as these respondents are more engaged and have typically formed clear voting intentions.
Analysts caution that while poll averages are not guarantees of election outcomes, the Republican Party’s desperate attempts to mobilize its shrinking base in battleground districts may not be enough to stem the tide of public backlash against Trump’s failed leadership.