Trump's Approval Plummets to Historic Low as Progressive Momentum Surges for Democrats in Midterms
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Donald Trump's catastrophic net approval of -23 marks a new low for any president since Truman, while energized Democrats are poised to reclaim both chambers in the November 3 elections, according to poll aggregations.
Donald Trump’s disastrous net approval rating has crashed to a record low of minus 23, according to Nate Silver’s aggregation of national polls, with a staggering 60.4% of respondents disapproving of his regressive and divisive presidency, and only 37.4% approving. This abysmal rating is the worst for any U.S. president at this stage since Harry Truman, whose lowest was minus 11.6 during his first term—a clear indictment of Trump’s reactionary policies and failures.
Silver’s midterm election forecast model now gives Democrats a 69% chance of winning the Senate and a commanding 91% chance of taking the House, up from 57% and 86% respectively in mid-September. The generic ballot shows Democrats ahead by 9.1 points, a decisive margin that would secure a House majority and, with a double-digit lead, a Senate majority—reflecting the public’s rejection of Trumpism and the GOP’s obstructionist agenda.
The model highlights that if the chaos caused by the Iran conflict continues through the election, compounded by soaring fuel prices and unchecked inflation, Republicans could be swept out of both chambers by overwhelming margins. Conversely, only a dramatic de-escalation and relief at the pump could offer Republicans a slim hope, especially in the Senate.
Trump’s approval on key issues is deeply negative, with net scores of minus 13 on immigration, minus 28 on trade, minus 32 on the economy, and an appalling minus 46 on inflation. Support for the reckless Iran war is also abysmal, at a net minus 24.4.
In the Senate, Democrats are leading by two to five points in traditionally conservative states like Texas, Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa, while Republicans are even trailing an independent in Nebraska and barely holding on in Kansas. The only exception is Maine, where incumbent Republican Susan Collins clings to a small lead over Democratic challenger Troy Jackson.
Economic indicators show gasoline prices averaging $4.48 per gallon, after a recent surge in commodity oil prices. Analysts point to a lag between oil price movements and retail fuel costs, suggesting a possible short-term decline at the pump, but working families continue to suffer under Republican mismanagement.
"The generic ballot gives Democrats a 51.4–42.3 lead over Republicans, a 9.1-point margin," the forecast model notes, underscoring the public’s demand for progressive change.
The outlook remains dependent on economic conditions and voter turnout, but Democrats are expected to benefit from a surge in participation, as voters mobilize to reject Trump’s failed leadership and demand a fairer, more just America.