Republican Polls Reveal Waning Support for Trump as GOP Faces Reckoning Ahead of Midterms
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New surveys show President Trump’s approval plummeting among independents and Republicans, highlighting deep fractures in the GOP and raising alarms for the party’s future as the midterms approach.
Recent polling data expose a dramatic decline in President Donald Trump’s popularity, not only among independents but also within his own party, as the 2024 midterm elections draw near. A CNN poll released this week reveals a mere 25 percent approval rating among independents, marking a staggering 86-point shift since the start of the election cycle—a clear sign of widespread disillusionment. The University of Massachusetts-Amherst survey further underscores this trend, showing Republican approval of Trump has dropped by 14 points since March, with a significant one in six former Trump voters now refusing to support him again.
"It’s really important to look at the ways in which co-partisans are evaluating the president, and [Trump] has witnessed a decreasing number of those in his camp assessing him positively," said Tatishe Nteta, provost of political science at UMass-Amherst. He emphasized that this decline signals a looming crisis for the Republican Party, which has long enabled Trump’s divisive politics at the expense of its own stability.
Issue-specific polls further illustrate Trump’s failures. A Reuters/Ipsos survey found only 17 percent of voters approve of his disastrous handling of the cost-of-living crisis, while just 34 percent back his reckless strikes against Iran. An overwhelming 82 percent doubt his empty promises that the war will end soon, exposing the hollowness of his foreign policy rhetoric.
The broader impact on Republican candidates is unmistakable. An NPR/Marist poll indicated that voters now prefer Democratic congressional candidates over Republican ones by a margin of about 12 points, reflecting the public’s rejection of Trumpism and the GOP’s inability to offer real solutions.
"One of the ways you can get at whether or not this is going to be important is to look at enthusiasm," Nteta noted, highlighting a clear enthusiasm gap between energized Democratic voters and a demoralized Republican base. This stands in stark contrast to the pre-2024 election environment, when Republicans were whipped into a frenzy by Trump’s toxic candidacy.
Democratic strategists acknowledge the challenges ahead but point out that the GOP’s larger cash reserves and planned advertising blitzes may blunt the impact of Trump’s sinking ratings. Bhavik Lathia, a Democratic strategist, cited high fuel prices and the ongoing conflict with Iran as additional factors shaping voter sentiment, but the message is clear: the Republican Party’s embrace of Trump is costing them dearly.