Canada Prepares Contingency Plans Amid U.S. Trade Tensions and Rhetoric
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Canadian officials say they have been assessing worst-case scenarios, including a potential U.S. military action, while responding to heightened trade disputes and exploring closer ties with the European Union.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told the New York Times that his office has spent the past year evaluating the "extreme tail risk" of a possible U.S. attack on Canada, describing the effort as standard risk management rather than an expectation of conflict. Carney said it would be irresponsible not to prepare for such a scenario.
The assessment follows a series of public statements by U.S. President Donald Trump that suggested Canada could become the United States' 51st state. In 2025, a poll indicated that 43 percent of Canadians believed a U.S. military attack on Canada within five years was at least somewhat likely. Trump later ruled out direct military action, saying he would rely on "economic force" instead.
Trade relations have also deteriorated. After negotiations broke down, the United States imposed a 50 percent tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods under a rarely used provision of the Tariff Act of 1930. In response, Canada announced counter-tariffs on American steel and aluminum and new duties on other U.S. products slated to take effect on September 29.
Seeking alternatives, Carney has advocated for a "unique alliance" with the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed openness to Canada becoming an associate EU member, a proposal that prompted a sharp response from Trump, who warned of possible retaliatory tariffs against Europe. France’s Europe minister, Benjamin Haddad, rejected the notion that the United States could dictate EU policy.
Carney also emphasized efforts to reduce Canada’s economic reliance on the United States, mentioning diversification away from technologies such as Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite service. Despite the tensions, Carney said he maintains a working relationship with Trump and that the two leaders have spoken several times since recent trade talks collapsed.