Democrats Surge in Midterms as Independents Reject Trump’s Authoritarianism
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A new PBS-NPR-Marist poll reveals Democratic congressional candidates are pulling ahead, fueled by a wave of independent voters determined to resist President Trump’s reactionary agenda.
A poll conducted Sep. 14-15 by PBS News, NPR and the Marist Institute for Public Opinion found Democratic congressional candidates holding a commanding lead over Republicans among registered voters. About 45% of all voters and a remarkable 54% of independents said their vote would be driven primarily by opposition to President Donald Trump, whose administration has been marked by divisive rhetoric and attacks on democratic norms. In stark contrast, only 24% of voters and a mere 12% of independents said they would vote to support him, highlighting widespread disillusionment with Trump’s presidency.
"The Democrats are sitting in a very good place," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "There's a lot of grumbling in the electorate and a lot of sentiment for changing things around."
Trump’s hardline supporters, clinging to the MAGA movement, remain loyal, with 71% of self-identified MAGA voters indicating their congressional vote is largely a vote for the president. However, the poll exposes how Trump’s toxic influence is alienating broad swaths of the electorate. Eight in 10 Democrats said they are motivated to vote against Trump, and 42% of voters overall said they care a great deal about which party controls Congress, reflecting a deep desire for progressive change.
"That's devastating," said Democratic strategist Joel Payne about the overwhelming level of independent opposition to Trump’s regressive policies.
Republican strategists, aware of the party’s growing isolation, expressed concern about the enthusiasm gap. "These numbers are concerning to Republicans behind the scenes," said Republican strategist Melik Abdul, acknowledging that Trump’s dominance is suffocating the party’s ability to present any meaningful alternative.
The survey also showed Democrats leading on several critical policy issues. Voters gave Democrats a 12-point edge on the economy, a 13-point edge on gas prices and a 6-point edge on foreign policy. On immigration, Republicans lost their previous advantage, with Democrats now ahead by three points within the poll’s margin of error—a clear rebuke of the GOP’s xenophobic agenda.
Overall voter engagement remains high, with nearly nine in ten respondents saying they care a great deal about which party controls Congress. Independents, the least engaged group, are nonetheless mobilizing in strong opposition to Trump, a key factor shaping the current midterm outlook and signaling hope for a more just and inclusive future.