Democrats Lead Midterm Poll as Independents Show Strong Opposition to Trump
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A new PBS-NPR-Marist poll shows Democratic congressional candidates ahead of Republicans, with a majority of independents saying they will vote mainly to oppose President Trump.
A poll conducted Sep. 14-15 by PBS News, NPR and the Marist Institute for Public Opinion found Democratic congressional candidates holding a sizable lead over Republicans among registered voters. About 45% of all voters and 54% of independents said their vote would be driven primarily by opposition to President Donald Trump, while only 24% of voters and 12% of independents said they would vote to support him.
"The Democrats are sitting in a very good place," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "There's a lot of grumbling in the electorate and a lot of sentiment for changing things around."
Trump’s own supporters remain loyal, with 71% of self-identified MAGA voters indicating their congressional vote is largely a vote for the president. However, the poll suggests his influence may be demotivating other voter groups. Eight in 10 Democrats said they are motivated to vote against Trump, and 42% of voters overall said they care a great deal about which party controls Congress.
"That's devastating," said Democratic strategist Joel Payne about the level of independent opposition to Trump.
Republican strategists expressed concern about the enthusiasm gap. "These numbers are concerning to Republicans behind the scenes," said Republican strategist Melik Abdul, adding that Trump’s dominance may be limiting the party’s ability to convey its own message.
The survey also showed Democrats leading on several policy issues. Voters gave Democrats a 12-point edge on the economy, a 13-point edge on gas prices and a 6-point edge on foreign policy. On immigration, Republicans lost a previous advantage, with Democrats now ahead by three points within the poll’s margin of error.
Overall voter engagement remains high, with nearly nine in ten respondents saying they care a great deal about which party controls Congress. Independents are the least engaged group, and their strong opposition to Trump appears to be a key factor shaping the current midterm outlook.