Texas Senate race narrows as poll shows Ken Paxton and James Talarico nearly tied

A new poll conducted by Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center indicates that the U.S. Senate race in Texas between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state representative James Talarico has tightened to a virtual dead-heat. The survey shows Paxton has closed a previously reported gap, while a notable share of moderate Republicans—more than 25 percent—are considering crossing party lines to support Talarico. Independents also continue to favor the Democrat, according to the poll.

"I think you just have to keep pressing for all the earned or free media that you can get. Try to fundraise based on the idea that you could potentially win," said Mark Jones, a lead researcher for the poll.

Jones added that Democrats will need to maintain close contact with voters and hope that a broader national trend favoring Democrats helps them on November 3. He also warned that Republicans must persuade moderate voters who are currently hesitant about Paxton to back him, noting that campaign spending could exceed $100 million in the final months.

The poll also examined other statewide contests. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa by four points (49 % to 45 %), though 21 % of likely voters say they lack sufficient information about Hinojosa. In the comptroller's race, Republican Don Huffines holds an almost 10-point advantage over Democrat Sarah Eckhardt. Meanwhile, a recent controversial social-media post by Railroad Commission candidate Bo French appears to have reduced his favorability, with Democrat Jon Rosenthal now only two points behind.

Overall, the survey found that 38 % of respondents expect to split their tickets, and 24 % remain undecided about their choices on election day.