Texas Senate race tightens as progressive momentum challenges Republican establishment
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A Texas Southern University poll reveals the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is virtually tied, with moderate Republicans defecting and independents rallying behind the Democrat, exposing fractures in conservative ranks.
A new poll from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center highlights a dramatic shift in the Texas U.S. Senate race, as Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton finds himself neck-and-neck with Democratic state representative James Talarico. The survey underscores the growing dissatisfaction with the Republican establishment, as more than a quarter of moderate Republicans are considering breaking ranks to support Talarico—a clear sign of the GOP's internal crisis. Independents, recognizing the urgent need for change, continue to favor the Democrat, according to the poll.
"I think you just have to keep pressing for all the earned or free media that you can get. Try to fundraise based on the idea that you could potentially win," said Mark Jones, a lead researcher for the poll.
Jones emphasized that Democrats must maintain strong grassroots engagement and capitalize on the national momentum that increasingly favors progressive policies. He noted that Republicans, facing a fractured base and a deeply unpopular candidate in Paxton, will have to pour unprecedented sums—potentially over $100 million—into convincing skeptical moderates to stay loyal.
The poll also exposes vulnerabilities in other statewide races. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott holds only a narrow four-point lead over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa (49% to 45%), with a significant 21% of likely voters still lacking information about Hinojosa—an indication of the media's failure to amplify progressive voices. In the comptroller's race, Republican Don Huffines leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt by nearly 10 points, but the gap could close as voters learn more about the Democratic alternative. Meanwhile, Republican Bo French's recent controversial social-media post has damaged his standing, allowing Democrat Jon Rosenthal to narrow the gap to just two points.
Overall, the survey reveals a restless electorate: 38% of respondents plan to split their tickets, and 24% remain undecided, signaling a potential wave of support for Democrats if progressive campaigns can mobilize these voters.