Texas poll shows narrow lead for Democrat Talarico in Senate race and wider gap for Gov. Abbott
A recent Texas poll finds Democrat James Talarico slightly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa for governor, with both margins falling within the surveys' error ranges.
A new poll conducted by NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group indicates that Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 46% to 43% in the Texas Senate race, a margin that falls within the survey’s ±4-point error range. In the gubernatorial contest, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott holds a 48% to 41% advantage over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, also within the margin of error.
The poll, which surveyed 625 likely voters statewide and a separate sample of 401 Hispanic likely voters, found that economic concerns topped voter priorities, followed by inflation, the cost of living, and immigration. Among Hispanic respondents, inflation was the leading issue (33%), with immigration ranking second (23%).
Latino voters favored the Democratic candidates, giving Talarico an 18-point lead (54%-36%) and Hinojosa a 13-point lead (52%-39%). Hinojosa previously noted that securing 64% of the Latino vote would be a decisive benchmark for a Democratic win.
Social issues such as transgender rights and abortion ranked low in importance for voters overall, with only about 6% of respondents citing them as influencing their candidate choice. Nonetheless, a majority of Texans (63%) opposed using state tax dollars for private school vouchers.
On immigration enforcement, opinions were divided. While 45% of Hispanic voters said Texas should cooperate with ICE on vehicle pursuits, 48% opposed it. White voters were more supportive of cooperation (62%); Black voters were largely opposed (66%). Among Republicans, 93% favored allowing police to question individuals about immigration status during lawful encounters, compared with 11% of Democrats.
"To give you a sense of our importance in this election, in 2018, the closest a Democrat came to flipping Texas in recent history, Beto O’Rourke ran against Ted Cruz and he got 64% of the Latino vote," Hinojosa said at a UnidosUS conference.
The poll’s margin of error is ±5 points for the Hispanic sample and ±4 points for the broader survey.