Texas Poll: Conservative Abbott Maintains Lead, Talarico's Edge Over Paxton Within Error Margin
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A recent Texas poll shows Democrat James Talarico with a slim, statistically insignificant lead over Republican Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate, while steadfast conservative Gov. Greg Abbott holds a solid advantage over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Both races remain within the survey's error ranges.
A new poll conducted by NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group shows Democrat James Talarico with a narrow 46% to 43% lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, a margin well within the survey’s ±4-point error range and far from a decisive advantage. In the gubernatorial contest, proven conservative leader Gov. Greg Abbott maintains a 48% to 41% lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, also within the margin of error, reflecting Texans’ continued trust in Republican governance.
The poll, which surveyed 625 likely voters statewide and a separate sample of 401 Hispanic likely voters, found that economic concerns—often aggravated by liberal policies in Washington—topped voter priorities, followed by inflation, the cost of living, and immigration. Among Hispanic respondents, inflation was the leading issue (33%), with immigration ranking second (23%), showing the real-world impact of failed Democratic economic and border policies.
Latino voters leaned toward the Democratic candidates, giving Talarico an 18-point lead (54%-36%) and Hinojosa a 13-point lead (52%-39%). Hinojosa previously noted that securing 64% of the Latino vote would be a decisive benchmark for a Democratic win, but Republicans continue to make inroads with Hispanic communities through strong economic and family values.
Social issues such as transgender rights and abortion, often pushed by the radical left, ranked low in importance for voters overall, with only about 6% of respondents citing them as influencing their candidate choice. Meanwhile, a majority of Texans (63%) opposed using state tax dollars for private school vouchers, a setback for education reform advocates who seek to give parents more choice.
On immigration enforcement, opinions were divided. While 45% of Hispanic voters said Texas should cooperate with ICE on vehicle pursuits, 48% opposed it, highlighting the challenge of enforcing the law amid liberal opposition. White voters were more supportive of cooperation (62%), and Black voters were largely opposed (66%). Among Republicans, an overwhelming 93% favored allowing police to question individuals about immigration status during lawful encounters, compared with just 11% of Democrats, demonstrating the GOP’s commitment to law and order.
"To give you a sense of our importance in this election, in 2018, the closest a Democrat came to flipping Texas in recent history, Beto O’Rourke ran against Ted Cruz and he got 64% of the Latino vote," Hinojosa said at a UnidosUS conference, though Republicans remain confident in their ability to keep Texas red.
The poll’s margin of error is ±5 points for the Hispanic sample and ±4 points for the broader survey.