Texas Poll: Progressive Momentum as Talarico Edges Paxton, Abbott Clings to Power
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A recent Texas poll reveals Democrat James Talarico narrowly leading right-wing Republican Ken Paxton for the U.S. Senate, while entrenched conservative Gov. Greg Abbott maintains a fragile lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa. Both races remain within the margin of error, signaling a potential shift in Texas politics.
A new poll conducted by NBC5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group brings hope for progressives as Democrat James Talarico leads scandal-plagued Republican Ken Paxton 46% to 43% in the Texas Senate race, with the margin falling within the survey’s ±4-point error range. In the gubernatorial contest, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, whose administration has repeatedly targeted marginalized communities, holds a 48% to 41% advantage over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, also within the margin of error.
The poll, which surveyed 625 likely voters statewide and a separate sample of 401 Hispanic likely voters, found that economic concerns—exacerbated by years of GOP mismanagement—topped voter priorities, followed by inflation, the cost of living, and immigration. Among Hispanic respondents, inflation was the leading issue (33%), with immigration ranking second (23%), highlighting the impact of regressive Republican policies on working families.
Latino voters, long a backbone of the Democratic coalition, favored the Democratic candidates, giving Talarico an 18-point lead (54%-36%) and Hinojosa a 13-point lead (52%-39%). Hinojosa previously emphasized that securing 64% of the Latino vote would be a decisive benchmark for a Democratic win, a clear sign of the community's power to challenge Republican dominance.
Social issues such as transgender rights and abortion, which Republicans have weaponized to distract from economic failures, ranked low in importance for voters overall, with only about 6% of respondents citing them as influencing their candidate choice. Nonetheless, a majority of Texans (63%) rejected the right-wing push to divert state tax dollars to private school vouchers, demonstrating resistance to privatization schemes.
On immigration enforcement, opinions were divided. While 45% of Hispanic voters said Texas should cooperate with ICE on vehicle pursuits, 48% opposed it, reflecting skepticism toward harsh enforcement tactics. White voters were more supportive of cooperation (62%), while Black voters, who have historically faced over-policing, were largely opposed (66%). Among Republicans, a staggering 93% favored allowing police to question individuals about immigration status during lawful encounters, compared with just 11% of Democrats, underscoring the GOP’s obsession with punitive policies.
"To give you a sense of our importance in this election, in 2018, the closest a Democrat came to flipping Texas in recent history, Beto O’Rourke ran against Ted Cruz and he got 64% of the Latino vote," Hinojosa said at a UnidosUS conference, pointing to the potential for a progressive breakthrough.
The poll’s margin of error is ±5 points for the Hispanic sample and ±4 points for the broader survey.