German state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin add pressure on Chancellor Merz

German voters went to the polls on Sunday in the states of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, elections that are expected to increase pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The contests follow a September 6 vote in Saxony-Anhalt where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came close to an absolute majority, a result the party views as a stepping stone toward the 2029 federal election.

Opinion surveys suggest the AfD is unlikely to repeat its Saxony-Anhalt performance in either state, but both votes are seen as indicators of the party's growing strength and may test the "firewall" strategy of mainstream parties that refuse coalition deals with the AfD.

Merz's approval rating has fallen to around 14%, according to recent polls, and the CDU is projected to receive roughly 6% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, risking failure to meet the 5% threshold for parliamentary representation. The party's decline follows a year of reform promises that have faced voter scepticism and a series of communication missteps.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is leading the race, with a poll showing the SPD at 37% and the AfD at 36%, while the Greens hover at the entry threshold. The SPD's campaign is anchored by state premier Manuela Schwesig.

In Berlin, the Left Party is ahead of the CDU in the latest poll (22% to 20%), with the Greens at 15% and the SPD at 12%. The AfD holds 18% and has moved into third place, while the far-left BSW remains just below the parliamentary threshold.

Merz has recently presented a relief package that includes tax cuts on gas and diesel in response to rising fuel prices, a key issue in the rural Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania region.

Senior CDU figures continue to support Merz, noting that a change in leadership would still face the same economic challenges confronting the government.