German chancellor faces uncertainty as Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania vote
Germany's federal elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on Sunday could test Chancellor Friedrich Merz's leadership, with the far-right AfD expected to draw votes from the ruling CDU.
Voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will cast ballots on Sunday, a result that could influence Chancellor Friedrich Merz's standing after 16 months in office. The elections come two weeks after the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) achieved its strongest regional showing in Saxony-Anhalt, prompting expectations that the party will again siphon support from Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Polling stations open at 8 a.m. and close at 6 p.m. Merz has declined to resign and said he intends to complete the four-year term for which his government was elected.
"We as a government were elected for four years, I was elected for four years, and I want to use these four years to lead the country out of this difficult period," he told an industry group.
Recent surveys place Merz's personal approval around 10 percent. He cancelled a planned speech at the United Nations, citing the need to remain in Berlin for the elections, a government official said. Analysts note that missed economic promises and the rise of the AfD, now the largest opposition party, have weakened his position.
In Berlin, the CDU competes primarily with the left-wing Die Linke, which advocates expropriation of large landlords to address rising rents. The AfD is projected to finish third or fourth. The city’s mayor, Kai Wegner, withdrew from the race in July after controversy over his conduct during a winter power outage; finance chief Stefan Evers now leads the CDU list but has not improved polling numbers.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the CDU faces a close contest with the Social Democrats, while the AfD trails closely behind. A fall below the 5 percent threshold would eliminate the CDU from the state parliament for the first time in post-war history, a scenario that would severely damage Merz's credibility.
Economist Holger Schmieding of Berenberg bank said he still expects Merz to serve the full term, but noted that the risk of an internal party revolt has risen to roughly 35 percent, citing higher fuel prices and persistent cost-of-living pressures as factors driving voter discontent. The AfD’s campaign focuses on economic anxiety, crime concerns and opposition to Germany's support for Ukraine, which continues to attract voters despite a recent decline in new arrivals at the border.