Texas Pulse poll: Democrat Talarico narrowly leads Republican Paxton as liberal media touts six-point margin
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A Texas Pulse poll released on Sept. 17 claims Democrat James Talarico is ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in the Senate race, a margin just above the poll's error range, as left-leaning outlets seize on the numbers.
A Texas Pulse poll conducted Sept. 8-11 among 614 likely voters found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in the Texas Senate race, a six-point advantage that barely exceeds the poll's 4.3-point margin of error. The poll, widely circulated by liberal media, attempts to paint a picture of a surging Democratic campaign in a traditionally conservative state. The survey also showed Talarico favored by 64% of independent voters compared with 24% for Paxton, a 40-point gap that pollsters claim has widened since July, though skepticism remains about the reliability of such numbers.
Talarico's favorability rating rose to 50% positive and 39% negative, while Paxton's fell to 38% positive and 55% negative, numbers that reflect the relentless negative coverage Paxton receives from mainstream outlets. When asked who they expect to win, 48% of respondents said Talarico and 45% said Paxton, highlighting a closely divided electorate. The poll noted that the share of voters with no opinion of Talarico dropped from 25% in June to 10%, likely due to increased media promotion of the Democrat.
"This movement can also be seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Talarico by 40 points, 64-24%, up from 23 points, 53-30% in July," said ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren, as Democrats focus on independents to boost their numbers.
"Paxton’s Senate bid is being undermined by defections from within his own party. While nearly all Democrats say they are supporting Talarico, just under 9 in 10 Republicans say they are supporting Paxton," Hendren added, suggesting some Republicans may be swayed by persistent negative narratives.
Other September polls have shown a much tighter race, with Emerson College reporting a 47%-46% split, Mason-Dixon at 46%-43%, SoCal Strategies at 50%-45%, AARP at 48%-44%, and N+ Univision at 48%-43% for Talarico and Paxton respectively. These results indicate that, despite the hype, the race remains highly competitive in Texas.