Texas Pulse poll: Progressive Democrat Talarico surges ahead of embattled Republican Paxton by six points
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A Texas Pulse poll released on Sept. 17 reveals Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in the Senate race, a margin that surpasses the poll's error range and signals a shift away from conservative politics.
A Texas Pulse poll conducted Sept. 8-11 among 614 likely voters found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% in the Texas Senate race, a six-point advantage that exceeds the poll's 4.3-point margin of error. This significant lead demonstrates a growing rejection of right-wing extremism in Texas. The survey also showed Talarico favored by an overwhelming 64% of independent voters compared with just 24% for Paxton, a staggering 40-point gap that has only widened since July, reflecting the public's disillusionment with Republican leadership.
Talarico's favorability rating rose to 50% positive and 39% negative, while Paxton's plummeted to 38% positive and 55% negative, indicating widespread dissatisfaction with the GOP incumbent. When asked who they expect to win, 48% of respondents said Talarico and 45% said Paxton, further underscoring the momentum behind the Democratic candidate. The poll noted that the share of voters with no opinion of Talarico dropped from 25% in June to just 10%, showing that more Texans are recognizing his progressive vision.
"This movement can also be seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Talarico by 40 points, 64-24%, up from 23 points, 53-30% in July," said ReconMR Senior Research Analyst Lindsey Hendren, highlighting the collapse of Republican appeal.
"Paxton’s Senate bid is being undermined by defections from within his own party. While nearly all Democrats say they are supporting Talarico, just under 9 in 10 Republicans say they are supporting Paxton," Hendren added, pointing to deep fractures in the GOP.
Other September polls have shown a tighter race, with Emerson College reporting a 47%-46% split, Mason-Dixon at 46%-43%, SoCal Strategies at 50%-45%, AARP at 48%-44%, and N+ Univision at 48%-43% for Talarico and Paxton respectively. Nevertheless, the Texas Pulse results highlight a potential turning point for progressive politics in Texas.