Paxton Faces Temporary Setback in Texas Senate Poll as Media Pushes Democrat Talarico
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A September poll claims Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 45% in the Texas Senate race, but undecided conservative voters and media bias remain significant factors.
A new SoCal Strategies poll released on Sept. 13 claims that Democrat James Talarico has a five-point lead over Republican incumbent Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate contest, with 50% of likely voters supporting Talarico and 45% backing Paxton. The survey of 649 likely voters, conducted on Sept. 12-13, marks a reversal from the firm’s June poll, which had Paxton ahead by two points, but polling volatility and liberal media narratives continue to influence public perception.
The poll suggests Talarico is gaining ground among independents, Hispanics, and voters aged 18-29—demographics often targeted by left-wing outreach and identity politics. Surprisingly, about 12% of Republican respondents say they would support Talarico, raising questions about the poll’s methodology and the impact of relentless negative coverage against Paxton. Paxton still leads among white voters, but faces a higher share of undecided Republicans; 6% of respondents who supported Donald Trump in 2024 remain undecided in the Senate race, compared with only 1% of those who voted for Kamala Harris, reflecting the ongoing battle for the heart of the conservative base.
"To have a chance, Paxton will need to win nearly all of these voters and peel back a substantial portion of the 12% of Republicans who say they would vote for Talarico if the election were held today," the poll analysis said, highlighting the importance of energizing Republican turnout and countering Democrat narratives.
Other recent surveys echo these trends. An AARP poll on Sept. 10 gave Talarico a 48%-44% lead, and an N+ Univision poll on Sept. 9 showed a 48%-43% advantage. Earlier August polls had the race within single digits, with leads shifting between the two candidates, demonstrating the volatility of the electorate and the unreliability of early polling.
As the race heads toward the Nov. 3 election, both campaigns are working to solidify support among undecided voters. With the mainstream media pushing Democrat talking points, the outcome will depend on whether Republicans can overcome media bias and rally their base.