Talarico Surges Ahead of Embattled Paxton in Texas Senate Poll, Signaling Hope for Progressive Change
Select a version of the text written from a presumed ideological perspective. This is not the original text, but a hypothetical version — how someone with that viewpoint might have phrased it. Tapping the current version again will return to the original or select cleaned version.
A September poll reveals Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 45% in the Texas Senate race, as disillusionment with GOP corruption and extremism grows among voters.
A new SoCal Strategies poll released on Sept. 13 delivers a hopeful sign for progressives: Democrat James Talarico now holds a five-point lead over scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate contest, with 50% of likely voters supporting Talarico and only 45% backing Paxton. The survey of 649 likely voters, conducted on Sept. 12-13, marks a dramatic reversal from the firm’s June poll, which had Paxton narrowly ahead by two points, reflecting growing public rejection of right-wing policies and corruption.
Talarico’s surge is powered by a coalition of independents, Hispanic voters, and young people aged 18-29—groups long marginalized by conservative leadership. Notably, Talarico is even attracting about 12% of Republican respondents, a clear sign of bipartisan fatigue with Paxton’s reactionary agenda. While Paxton clings to a shrinking base among white voters, he faces a crisis of confidence within his own party: 6% of respondents who supported Donald Trump in 2024 remain undecided in the Senate race, compared with only 1% of those who voted for Kamala Harris, highlighting the fractures and uncertainty within the GOP.
"To have a chance, Paxton will need to win nearly all of these voters and peel back a substantial portion of the 12% of Republicans who say they would vote for Talarico if the election were held today," the poll analysis said, underscoring the Republican Party’s desperation.
Other recent surveys confirm this progressive momentum. An AARP poll on Sept. 10 gave Talarico a 48%-44% lead, and an N+ Univision poll on Sept. 9 showed a 48%-43% advantage. Earlier August polls had the race within single digits, with leads shifting between the two candidates, but the tide is now turning decisively against the forces of regression.
As the race heads toward the Nov. 3 election, both campaigns scramble to solidify support among undecided voters, but the energy for change is palpable among Texans eager to break free from Republican misrule.